May 23, 2006
By Dylan Skriloff
The massive threat a virulent outbreak of Avian Bird Flu could pose for the population of Rockland County and the world, was the subject of an address by Rockland County Executive C. Scott Vanderhoef, before over 120 members of the Rockland Business Association’s May General Membership Luncheon at the Pearl River Hilton.
Vanderhoef told the crowd of the worst case scenario should the Avian Bird Flu strain H5N1 ever become contagious among humans. He envisioned economies being closed down and infected areas being quarantined. Schools and malls could be closed for periods of time and gymnasiums would be converted into hospitals. Other issues for governments and businesses to consider were who gets vaccine first and how to take volunteers.
"Have I scared you enough yet," Vanderhoef asked the crowd about halfway through his presentation.
The crowd responded with a murmer of "yes, yes."
"It is horrible. I am not here to simply say it is horrible, I am here to say lets think it through," Vanderhoef said. "I’m giving you a little fright today, so we don’t panic tomorrow," he said.
Vanderhoef used a power point display to explain the difference between seasonal and pandemic influenza. Seasonal influenza is predictable, there is built in immunity due to previous exposures, there are vaccines accessible and the result is a modest impact on society.
Pandemic influenza is rare, only three outbreaks in the past 100 years have occurred, there is little or no built in immunity, no vaccine is readily accessible and there is the potential for a catastrophic impact on society. Vanderhoef said that a mammalian strain of the Avian Bird Flu does not exist as yet and may never exist. It could happen at anytime however.
"The fear is a mutation will take place and turn it into a mammalian flu," he said. If a mammalian strain of the flu were to develop, Vanderhoef said it could not be contained. Close to 700,000 New York State residents would be hospitalized in a worst case scenario, including many thousands of deaths.
The Avian Bird Flu strain H5N1 first was identified in 1997 and there have been several outbreaks among bird populations mostly in Asia; leading to the slaughter of millions of birds. Vanderhoef described the virus as being extremely virulent, killing 100% of chickens infected with it. Over 200 humans have been infected with the virus, all who worked in close contact with infected chickens. Of those humans who have been infected, over half have died.
Vanderhoef said should a mutated flu strain spread it could potentially cause similar damage to the 1918 Spanish influenza that devastated the global population. In 1918 more than half of all deaths in the world were from the Spanish influenza. In the United States, six percent of the population perished.
The attacks were most prevalent in those ages 24 to 40. The hardest hit group was pregnant women, 71% died. In all 50 to 100 million people perished, including people in distant locations such as small outcast communities in Alaska.
RBA member Hector May asked Vanderhoef how Rockland County could avoid a Katrina-like situation should the flu spread.
Vanderhoef responded, "By doing what we’re doing right now."
Prior to the presentation Robin Gardner of Globe Institute of Technology and Phoenix Life Coaching said she hoped it would offer a chance to glean a reasonable outlook of the situation.
"I’d like some ability to be reality based and not jump to the fear-based mentality so common in this society. We should be equipped in a responsible way without dramatizing this," Gardner said.
Following the presentation she said she was not disappointed.
"It was very informative, the statistical information was alarming. I feel unfortunately they talk about being prepared, but so much is unknown that there is no concrete way to really be prepared," said Gardner.
"It was informational. ‘Take this serious, this is not just talk,’ is what I got out of it," said Joan Neumann, RBA Vice President of Administration.
"It was common sense stuff, being aware of what’s happening around and taking care of your basic health," said Jen Kacak, Executive Assistant of Smart Money Mortgage Center, Inc.
A representative of the Rockland County Health Department spoke from the audience during the question and answer segment of the talk, and said if people boosted their immune system it would help them survive any health situation.
"Not everyone who walks into a room full of tuberculosis will walk out of the room with tuberculosis," she noted.
Vanderhoef said he’d received information from the New York State Department of Health about the potentials for a pandemic and then began his own research into the issue, reading professional magazines and journals, with help from officials in both the State and County. The potential for an outbreak was alarming to him, so he took action to alert the public.
One audience member asked the County Executive how the government could deal with apathy and cynicism amongst the citizenry.
"If I get everyone to look at that checklist, we just made progress,"
Vanderhoef said. The checklist Vanderhoef referred to contained 35 issues for businesses to consider in planning for the impact of a pandemic.
Dr. Liz Benjamin of the County Health Department noted that Rockland County has been working on disaster preparations for the past 25 years. Vanderhoef said the County was "pretty good" in its capability to move people around in an emergency, including most sorts of potential Indian Point evacuations.
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